Understanding weather forecasts

weather forecasts predict atmospheric conditions for a specific location and time. Modern forecasts use complex computer models that analyze current conditions and historical patterns to predict future weather.

How Accurate Are Forecasts?

Forecast accuracy decreases over time:

Timeframe Accuracy Best For
Today 90-95% Immediate planning
Tomorrow 85-90% Next-day events
3 Days 80-85% Short trips
5 Days 75-80% General planning
7 Days 70-75% Trend awareness

For important events, check the forecast closer to the date for the most accurate prediction.

Temperature & Feels Like

Actual Temperature

The actual (or ambient) temperature is measured by thermometers in shaded, well-ventilated locations. This is the standard measurement you see in forecasts.

Feels Like Temperature

Also called "apparent temperature," this accounts for how humans perceive temperature based on:

  • Humidity: High humidity makes warm temperatures feel hotter because sweat doesn't evaporate as efficiently
  • Wind: Wind increases heat loss from skin, making cold temperatures feel colder (wind chill)
  • Sun exposure: Direct sunlight can make it feel warmer than the measured temperature

💡 Pro Tip

When planning outdoor activities, pay more attention to the "feels like" temperature than the actual temperature. It better represents what you'll experience.

UV Index Guide

The UV (Ultraviolet) Index measures the strength of sun's UV radiation. Higher values mean greater potential for skin and eye damage.

0-2 Low

Minimal risk. No protection needed for most people.

3-5 Moderate

Some risk. Wear sunscreen, hat, and sunglasses.

6-7 High

High risk. Reduce sun exposure during midday hours.

8-10 Very High

Very high risk. Take extra precautions. Seek shade.

11+ Extreme

Extreme risk. Avoid sun exposure. Skin burns in minutes.

UV Protection Tips

  • Apply SPF 30+ sunscreen 15-30 minutes before going outside
  • Reapply sunscreen every 2 hours, or after swimming/sweating
  • Wear UV-blocking sunglasses to protect your eyes
  • UV rays are strongest between 10 AM and 4 PM
  • UV can penetrate clouds - protect yourself even on cloudy days
  • Snow, water, and sand reflect UV rays, increasing exposure

Air Quality Index (AQI)

The AQI measures air pollution levels and their health implications. It considers pollutants like PM2.5, PM10, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide.

0-50 Good

Air quality is satisfactory. No health risk.

51-100 Moderate

Acceptable. Unusually sensitive people should limit outdoor activity.

101-150 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Children, elderly, and those with respiratory issues should reduce outdoor exertion.

151-200 Unhealthy

Everyone may experience health effects. Limit outdoor activity.

201-300 Very Unhealthy

Health alert. Everyone should reduce outdoor exertion.

301+ Hazardous

Emergency conditions. Everyone should avoid outdoor activity.

Humidity Explained

Humidity measures the amount of water vapor in the air. It's usually expressed as "relative humidity" - a percentage of how much moisture the air holds compared to its maximum capacity at that temperature.

Humidity Levels

Level Range How It Feels
Very Dry 0-30% Dry skin, static electricity, respiratory discomfort
Comfortable 30-50% Ideal range for most people
Slightly Humid 50-60% Still comfortable, slightly sticky
Humid 60-70% Noticeably muggy, sweating doesn't cool effectively
Very Humid 70%+ Oppressive, difficult to cool down, fog possible

Wind Speed & Direction

Wind Direction

Wind direction tells you where the wind is coming FROM, not where it's going. A "north wind" blows from north to south.

Wind Speed Scale (Beaufort Scale)

Speed (km/h) Description Effects
0-5 Calm Smoke rises vertically
6-11 Light Air Smoke drifts, leaves rustle
12-19 Light Breeze Wind felt on face, flags flutter
20-28 Gentle Breeze Leaves and small twigs move
29-38 Moderate Breeze Dust and paper blow, small branches move
39-49 Fresh Breeze Small trees sway, whitecaps on water
50-61 Strong Breeze Large branches move, umbrellas difficult
62+ High Wind Whole trees move, walking difficult

Precipitation Probability

Precipitation probability (PoP) indicates the chance of measurable precipitation (rain, snow, etc.) at your location during the forecast period.

What the Percentages Mean

  • 0-20%: Very unlikely - Don't worry about rain
  • 20-40%: Slight chance - Keep an eye on updates
  • 40-60%: Chance - Consider bringing an umbrella
  • 60-80%: Likely - Plan for rain, bring rain gear
  • 80-100%: Very likely - Expect precipitation

💡 Important Note

Precipitation probability doesn't tell you HOW MUCH rain or HOW LONG it will rain. A 90% chance could mean brief showers or all-day rain. Check additional details like expected rainfall amounts.

Atmospheric Pressure

Atmospheric (barometric) pressure is the weight of air above a location. It's measured in hectopascals (hPa) or millibars (mb).

Pressure and Weather

  • High Pressure (>1020 hPa): Usually indicates fair, stable weather with clear skies
  • Normal Pressure (1013 hPa): Standard atmospheric pressure at sea level
  • Low Pressure (<1000 hPa): Often associated with clouds, rain, and stormy weather

Pressure Changes

Rapidly falling pressure often indicates approaching storms. Rising pressure typically means improving weather conditions.

Weather Symbols Guide

Understanding common weather icons and symbols:

☀️ Clear / Sunny
🌤️ Partly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
☁️ Cloudy / Overcast
🌧️ Rain
⛈️ Thunderstorm
🌨️ Snow
🌫️ Fog / Mist
💨 Windy
🌪️ Tornado

Weather Glossary

Barometric Pressure
The pressure exerted by the atmosphere at a given point, measured in hPa or mb.
Dew Point
The temperature at which air becomes saturated and dew forms. Higher dew points feel more humid.
Front
The boundary between two air masses of different temperatures. Cold fronts and warm fronts often bring weather changes.
Heat Index
A measure of how hot it feels when humidity is factored in with the actual temperature.
Precipitation
Any form of water falling from clouds, including rain, snow, sleet, and hail.
Relative Humidity
The amount of water vapor in the air compared to the maximum amount the air could hold at that temperature.
Visibility
The greatest distance at which objects can be seen and identified. Affected by fog, rain, snow, and pollution.
Wind Chill
A measure of how cold it feels when wind is factored in with the actual temperature.
Wind Gust
A brief increase in wind speed, typically lasting less than 20 seconds.

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